Saturday, September 27, 2008

First Presidential Debate of 2008

After a tumultuous week, the debate was almost anti-climactic. The events of the week will be remembered long after what was said or done at the debate. From the previous debates by Obama and McCain in their primaries, I expected McCain to "win" in the eyes of the viewing public. McCain's usual performance of short, directive answers plays better than Obama's usual nuanced and longer answers. However, every poll on Saturday morning shows people believe Obama "won" the debate (not counting online polls like mine - unscientific but vote anyway!).

I'll pause here to give kudos to Jim Lehrer, the moderator. The questions were fair and relevant, and this was the closest thing to a "debate" I have seen in presidential politics in a long time. Jim worked hard in the beginning to try to have the candidates engage each other, but stayed out of the way.

On substance, I thought Obama gave the clearest and most accurate answers in the economic discussion that was the first half hour. I agree with Obama on the economy, so I'm sure that affects my view of the answers, but I was glad to hear him make the point that McCain is proposing tax cuts without equal spending cuts. McCain uses earmark spending as his only example of spending cuts but McCain could not respond to the fact that earmark spending doesn't even come CLOSE to covering his tax cuts. Neither candidate would identify specific programs for spending cuts, but I thought Obama explained what his decision process would be.

The majority of the time was spent on the foreign policy issues of Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. On these topics, my analysis of the debate was that McCain displayed more experience but Obama showed better judgment and a far better analytic approach. The two best examples for me of this analysis involved Pakistan. I thought it was fairly damning of McCain for him to say his only problem with Obama's approach to military strikes in Pakistan was whether or not we talked about it! I was also impressed with Obama's willingness to say to the American people that we "coddled" the dictator Musharraf and thus lost the Pakistani people. McCain's attempted justification of "but the alternatives were worse" is no excuse. But more importantly than who is right is Obama's willingness to be OPEN about it. Let the American people know what we're doing abroad instead of this secret supporting of dictators when it's convenient.

In the Iraq war discussion, nothing new. But a great line from Obama, "John, you like to pretend like the war started in 2007." It's true that McCain will not defend his 2003 position on the Iraq war. The Iran discussion was similar. I believe McCain knows more people and has been more places, but I also believe that Obama is right that the approach of McCain has not worked. McCain had no evidence that it has worked. It's pretty remarkable when, on this issue, even the Bush Administration is now moving toward what Obama has been saying for quite awhile.

On the non-substantive debate dynamics, eventually I could no longer ignore that McCain would not look at Obama during the debate. I don't think he even turned his head. Given the exchanges and the direct urging of the moderator, that seemed like a decision. I have no idea why. Watching a clip later I noticed that McCain didn't even look at Obama when shaking hands in the opening. Also, McCain gave a few sarcastic answers and repeatedly said "he doesn't understand" (though wouldn't look at Obama and say "YOU don't understand"). Overall I think this icy demeanor hurts McCain. Obama wasn't Reagan or Clinton "warm" either, but seemed equally engaged with the moderator, McCain and TV audience.

Overall, I have to give Obama the win on substance in the economy (better description of his own plan and distinctions with McCain's); a draw on foreign policy substance (just comes down to who you agree with); a slight edge to Obama on demeanor (though if you're turned off by sarcasm you would give Obama a big edge here).

Has this debate impacted my vote? Only to the extent that I feel more confident in Obama as a leader. I already agreed with his economic plan but liked his open analysis on foreign policy. If you have a different opinion or something stood out to you, I'd like hear about it.

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